![]() ![]() (The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. Though the 12 letters would not fit easily into a snappy acronym, the new club would have a better chance than the BRICS of finding a useful role. Six of them would also be members of the Group of 20 large economies. Including Brazil, India and South Africa, this new club of 12 would account for 36% of the world’s population, 22% of its greenhouse gas emissions and 12% of its GDP. There would be nine new potential members: Mexico, Indonesia, Argentina, Thailand, Nigeria, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Bangladesh. There would also be little point in including rich fossil fuel states such as Saudi Arabia, which has a strong interest in delaying action on climate change.Īssume the group limited membership to neutral countries whose economic output is bigger than South Africa’s $400 billion. So they should be able to unite on keeping the global trading system open and ramping up flows of climate finance.īut to do any of this, the club would have to exclude China and Russia. And they need help to decarbonise their economies rapidly and protect against the worst ravages of climate change. They don’t want a new Cold War that would crush their growth opportunities. But almost all developing countries can agree on two issues. Countries which see China as a threat, including India and the Philippines, have recently tilted towards the United States. Some countries won’t want to be equidistant from the two superpowers. Both the United States and China have shown they are willing to offer so-called swing states inducements - from weapons to infrastructure and help in building green economies - to stop them falling into the other’s camp. ![]() Developing countries can benefit from playing one superpower off against the other. Top of the list would be to stress their neutral status. They would, of course, first need to agree what they would stand for. Today’s large non-aligned nations could create a similar group. During the Cold War, India helped create the Non-Aligned Movement, which brought together countries that didn’t want to be part of either the U.S. BEYOND BRICSĭeveloping nations have other options for joining forces. It has been trying to stop oil importers paying for Russian oil with yuan, albeit with limited success. What’s more, New Delhi doesn’t want to be sucked into China’s currency orbit. They would also like an alternative place to stash foreign exchange assets after the world’s rich democracies froze Russia’s reserves following the invasion of Ukraine.īut neither China nor India has a fully convertible currency - limiting the attractiveness of the yuan and the rupee. ![]() The vagaries of Federal Reserve monetary policy whipsaw their economies. ![]() It’s true that many developing countries want to wean themselves off their dependence on the U.S. Given how hard it has been for even five nations to agree, it’s fanciful to suppose a larger and more disparate gathering would achieve anything more than complain about American hegemony. But it’s not obvious what a bigger group would do. Indeed, Vladimir Putin is not attending this year’s summit because South Africa would be required to arrest him, as it is a member of the International Criminal Court which has issued a warrant against the Russian President.Ĭhina is keen to expand the club to new members. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further compromised the BRICS. Besides, most developing countries don’t want to be forced to choose sides in a showdown with the United States. It is also hard to view China, now the world’s second-largest economy, as a voice for the Global South. India sees the People’s Republic as its most dangerous threat. The fault line between India and China, which fought a small war in the Himalayas in 2020, is one reason the BRICS club has done so little. ![]()
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